Tragedy of the Middle East, Explained
Dear Investors,
I found myself seated in front of a blank page, grappling with the decision of whether to put my thoughts into words. As some of you may be aware, I've been sharing various perspectives on Twitter, both my own and those of individuals I deeply respect. It often feels like we're engaged in a battle for truthful information and perception, but it's crucial to bear in mind that this battle holds profound real-world consequences for those enduring the conflict's hardships on both sides. Therefore, a sense of sensitivity is paramount.
Since this is a newsletter, let's begin by summarizing some key facts from the recent days, recognizing that some details are still emerging. I have italicized anything that is my own color and opinion on the matter, rather than fact.
Quick Facts About the Conflict:
On Saturday, October 7th, 2023, Hamas initiated a large-scale attack on Israel, encompassing land, sea, and air.
These attacks included horrifying acts, such as the mass execution of 260 civilians at a music festival, multiple instances of sexual assault, the execution of children, the burning of homes, and even the beheading of children and babies. Tragically, elderly individuals were shot at point-blank range.
The attack also involved the launch of over 5,000 rockets, with not all of them intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system.
Israel suffered over 1,200 fatalities and more than 3,000 injuries, and 150 kidnappings, marking this as the deadliest incursion in the nation's history. Some have likened it to Israel's own 9/11 due to its barbaric nature, including reports of heinous acts against infants and toddlers. Note: None of the Israeli civilians deaths resulted in the normal fall-out from conflict. The targets were not IDF bases or Israeli politicians, with a few civilians killed along the way. The civilians were the target. This is what separates terrorism from military warfare.
On Tuesday, the United States confirmed the deaths of at least 22 U.S. citizens and expressed concern that Americans might be among the hostages held by Hamas. Hostages and casualties have been reported from over a dozen other countries, as they were present at the music festival.
In response, Israel launched airstrikes on Gaza, resulting in extensive damage to homes, schools, medical facilities, and government buildings. Ground operations have also been initiated to secure the hostages.
The death toll in Gaza has risen to 1,055, with an additional 5,184 people injured, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. Given the extensive nature of the bombing, and that Gaza has 2M people in only 325 sq km, as one of the most densely populated places on earth, the relatively small number of casualties so far is surprising. Israel did issue several warnings before bombing targets, and it is possible some people were able to evacuate.
What is Hamas?
Hamas holds uncontested “democratically elected” authority in Gaza, with no elections held since 2006. The Palestinian Authority; its main political party, Fatah; the business community; civil society; and family clan leaders cannot effectively challenge Hamas, which has become only stronger after each successive conflict with Israel.
Hamas has a sole objective of exterminating all Jews in their charter. Hamas enjoys public support from Hezbollah, Iran, and other terrorist organizations.
Despite the Israeli blockade and constant surveillance, Hamas has managed to acquire and manufacture more rockets, improve their range and accuracy, provide combat training to its fighters, and develop an extensive intelligence network capable of launching simultaneous attacks on 22 Israeli locations.
While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is undeniably complex and tragic on both sides, it should not be a contentious issue to condemn the actions of Hamas, a designated terrorist organization that resorts to barbaric acts against civilians, including rape and beheadings. Let's unite on this basic principle.
Some arguments have circulated on the internet suggesting that Hamas was acting as a resistance movement in self-defense of the Palestinian people. These statements have emerged from various sources, including the BLM movement, certain student groups at prestigious universities, and elements of the so-called 'woke left.' It's essential to clarify this point: Palestinians are primarily victims of the regime, and the majority do not support it. Likewise, most Arab Muslims do not endorse Hamas.
Hamas is indeed a terrorist organization that neglects the human rights of its own people, let alone those of others. Its stated objectives, as proudly outlined in its charter, revolve around the destruction of Israel and the genocide of every Jewish person.
As we witness pro-Palestine rallies taking place in cities worldwide, with some individuals expressing disturbing sentiments like 'gas the Jews,' it raises a crucial question. Are these demonstrations more rooted in anti-Semitism than in advocating for the rights of Palestinian civilians?
Brief Historical Context on The Israel-Palestine Conflict
As you all know, there is too much here to explain effectively and conscisely without some bias. As such I have relied on ChatGPT to take some of the bias out.
Ancient Historial Context:
Ancient History: The land has been inhabited for thousands of years. It was home to several ancient civilizations, including the Canaanites, who are believed to have been one of the earliest indigenous peoples in the area. The Canaanites were followed by other groups, including the Israelites, who established the Kingdom of Israel in the biblical period.
Roman Rule: In the 1st century BCE, the Roman Empire conquered the region and renamed it Judea. This era saw the Jewish Revolt against Roman rule, leading to the destruction of the Second Temple in Jerusalem in 70 CE.
Byzantine and Islamic Periods: After the Romans, the region became part of the Byzantine Empire, and later, it was conquered by Islamic Arab forces in the 7th century CE. It remained under various Islamic dynasties for centuries, with Jerusalem being a significant religious and cultural center for Muslims, Christians, and Jews.
Crusades: During the Middle Ages, the region was the focus of the Crusades, a series of religious wars between Christian and Muslim forces, resulting in multiple changes of control.
Ottoman Empire: The Ottoman Empire ruled the area from the early 16th century until the end of World War I. During this period, the land was part of the broader Ottoman province of Syria.
Modern Day Context:
Late 19th and Early 20th Century: The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the late 19th century when Jewish immigration to Palestine, then part of the Ottoman Empire, increased due to the rise of Zionism, a political movement advocating for the establishment of a Jewish homeland. By World War I, tensions between the Jewish and Arab populations had escalated.
British Mandate Period (1917-1947): After World War I, the League of Nations granted Britain a mandate to govern Palestine. During this period, tensions between Jews and Arabs continued to grow, with both communities asserting their national rights. Jewish immigration increased, leading to clashes between the two groups.
1947-1949: UN Partition and First Arab-Israeli War: In 1947, the United Nations proposed a plan to partition Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states, with Jerusalem as an international city. The plan was accepted by Jewish leaders but rejected by Arab states and Palestinian Arab leaders. After the British withdrawal, the first Arab-Israeli war broke out in 1948. Israel declared independence, and neighboring Arab states intervened. The war ended in 1949 with armistice agreements and significant territorial changes. Both sides exercised violence against civilians during this time.
Post-1949: Refugee Issue and Continuing Conflict: The conflict never truly ended. Arab states refused to recognize Israel's existence, and Palestinian Arab refugees resulted from the 1948 war. The status of Jerusalem remained contentious.
1967: Six-Day War: In 1967, Israel fought a brief but decisive war against Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, capturing the West Bank (from Jordan), East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip (from Egypt), and the Golan Heights (from Syria). This significantly altered the territorial dynamics of the conflict.
1978-1993: Peace Efforts: There were various attempts at peace negotiations, such as the Camp David Accords in 1978 and the Oslo Accords in 1993. The latter led to limited Palestinian self-rule in parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Second Intifada (2000-2005): The failure to achieve a comprehensive peace agreement led to a violent Palestinian uprising known as the Second Intifada, which resulted in significant loss of life and further deterioration of relations.
Gaza 2005: Israel fully pulled out of the Gaza Strip in August 2005. This unilateral disengagement plan, also known as the "Gaza Disengagement Plan" or "Hitnatkut," involved the evacuation of all Israeli civilians from Gaza and the dismantling of Israeli settlements in the area. Israeli military forces also withdrew from Gaza as part of this plan, ending their direct control over the territory. To my knowledge, Israel did this voluntary, at great political cost, because giving back a self-governing territory back to the Palestinians was considered the right thing to do.
Recent Developments: The conflict remained unresolved, with periodic outbreaks of violence, including wars in Gaza in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014 and 2021. The expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and continued disputes over issues like borders, refugees, and Jerusalem continued to hinder progress towards a lasting peace.
It is crucial to consider the historical context when encountering terms like "occupier" or "colonizer" in discussions regarding Israel, as the situation is far from black and white. The Jewish people have a deep-rooted history in the land in question, and even if they didn't, many countries worldwide have experienced border changes through conflicts, leading to people losing their original homes (e.g., modern-day America and Canada). Both Israelis and Palestinians have historical ties to the land, but what stands out is that, over the past 75 years, Israel has successfully established a democratic state with a population of 10 million, including 1.6 million Arabs and non-Jews who hold full Israeli citizenship.
Today, Israel is widely recognized as one of the most progressive nations globally. It stands as the sole functioning democracy in the Middle East, boasts the highest number of startups per capita with substantial venture capital funding, ranks third in the number of NASDAQ-listed companies, and has earned numerous Nobel prizes.
Through progress and diplomacy, Israel has garnered support from the majority of developed Western nations and is forging paths toward normalization in business-oriented countries in the Middle East, such as Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, the Palestinian people have not accepted the loss of this land over the past 75 years and have consistently rejected every attempt at a two-state solution.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Navigating this issue is a complex task, inherently entangled with bias. Nevertheless, I will attempt to address both perspectives.
Generally, my opinion here is two-fold:
1. Israel is a democratic and progressive nation that has the right to exist and defend itself.
2. The living conditions for the people of Palestinian descent in Gaza (and much of the West Bank) are unconscionable.
Understanding the complexities of the Middle East conflict necessitates considering historical and current factors. Six decades ago, Israel faced the threat of annihilation from surrounding Arab nations, prompting its establishment as a refuge for Jews who had endured centuries of persecution, culminating in the Holocaust.
In the present, Israel holds a dominant position with substantial resources, support from the United States and Europe, and a powerful military. Simultaneously, Israeli technological and military advancements have reinforced this dominance, driven by the necessity to ensure its survival.
However, the Palestinian population's refusal to accept changing realities, a two-state solution, or any peace deal has resulted in governance by terrorist groups. With each act of terrorism, Israel has tightened its control, implemented checkpoints, and restricted access to Gaza and the West Bank. Once, Gaza had its airport, and people could move more freely between Gaza and Egypt, fostering hope. Yet, that hope has dwindled with each violent uprising.
Israel's policies have resulted in dire conditions for the two million Arabs in Gaza, essentially confining them to an open-air prison, with living conditions in violation of basic human rights, despite substantial humanitarian aid. The absence of unified Palestinian leadership, coupled with division within the Arab world regarding Palestine, has exacerbated the conflict.
While I deeply care for Israel, it's undeniable that confining two million people in such conditions breeds continuous violence. Each act of violence, whether by Israel or extremist groups, perpetuates cycles of retaliation, causing immense suffering, especially to innocent Palestinian children.
It's vital to acknowledge that each Israeli military response recruits more Palestinian individuals to the cause against them, intensifying the conflict. Israeli leaders share blame for escalating tensions, while Palestinian leaders are responsible for rejecting every peaceful solution multiple times in the past. The Palestinian leadership has failed on every count, both in negotiations and in corruption through misattributing billions in humanitarian aid.
The burden to find a solution falls not only on Israel but also on the UN and Middle Eastern allies. Many countries have asylum and refugee programs inaccessible to Palestinians. Egypt maintains a sealed border with Gaza, while Iran and Iraq refuse to accept Palestinian refugees, despite supporting Hamas.
In my humble opinion, the larger issue isn't solely the Palestinians' inability to return to their ancestral land; it's their inability to seek refuge elsewhere.
What would it look like if the international community came up with a quota program to allow Palestinians to go to other countries and start new lives? For context, the Palestinian diaspora is already 6 million globally. So it’s not radical to think that they would be happy elsewhere. Same as many Ukrainian refugees are choosing to start over in other places. Same as many Jews did prior.
The Israel-Palestine Narrative
There is a growing “Us versus Them” narrative in the news and on social media.
As someone of Jewish heritage, I want to say that we are not cheering for your deaths. The Jewish people are morning the loss of their children, and they have space in their hearts for yours too.
If you see a video of a radical Jew saying otherwise, know that he/she does not represent us.
We mourn your loss with you. Because life is life. Family is family.
And we ask, humbly, that you condemn your “leaders” and mourn our loss with us, rather than protesting against us on the streets. Just like you, we did not want this outcome, either.
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Until next week,
Tatiana Koffman
About the Author: Tatiana Koffman
Hi there and thanks for reading! If you stumble upon my newsletter, you will notice that I write about money, economics, and technology. I hold a JD/MBA and spent my career in Capital Markets working across Mergers & Acquisitions, Derivatives, Venture Capital, and Cryptocurrencies. I write to make financial topics more accessible and create equal opportunity for the next generation of investors. I have personally invested in 20+ companies and funds (👉 my portfolio).